Prediction-Market Signals for Insurance

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Insurance — Risk Intelligence

Reinsurance, large commercial carriers, MGAs, brokers writing political risk / event cancellation / M&A R&W

PolymarketPerplexityunderwriting intelschedulingalerts

The problem

Underwriters and actuaries have great internal models but little visibility into the fastest-moving public probability signal — prediction markets can update intraday on news the carrier won't process for days.
Hurricane landfall odds, election outcomes, M&A close probabilities, regulation-pass dates, recession timing — all of these directly affect pricing, reserving, or capacity decisions, and all of them have liquid public markets nobody on the underwriting team is watching.
When someone does check, they hit the Polymarket UI manually, eyeball the chart, and try to remember what it looked like yesterday — no record, no diff, no narrative for the audit file.
Capacity allocation and treaty-renewal timing decisions get made on monthly internal reviews — meanwhile the public probability has already moved 20 points and the reinsurer knows.

How InsightWorker handles it

Pick a watch list — markets relevant to your book (hurricane landfall by region, named storm count, election outcomes for specific states, M&A deals you're writing R&W for, etc). config — .insightworker/playbooks/markets.md

Pull current prices and 24h price deltas for each tracked market via the Polymarket public API (free, no auth). web_fetch — gamma-api.polymarket.com / clob.polymarket.com

Compare each market's implied probability to the carrier's internal model output. Flag rows where the gap exceeds a configurable threshold (e.g. >10 percentage points or >2 standard deviations). agent reasoning · mapping playbook

For every flagged market, run perplexity_search with recency=day to fetch the news driving the move, with citations. The narrative goes alongside the number — never just the number. perplexity_search · recency=day

Compose a daily intelligence brief (HTML email + Excel) with three sections: (1) tracked markets — current vs prior day, (2) divergences from model — top 5 with narrative, (3) action items — what an underwriter or treaty manager should review today. create_excel · send_email

Schedule it — most desks want a 7 AM digest before underwriting calls. Cron 0 7 * * 1-5. scheduler · cron syntax

Use --dry-run to iterate on the email format without spamming the distribution list. Once it's right, drop the flag. schedule run --dry-run

Position the brief as INTERNAL signal only — prediction-market prices are not a primary rate-filing input. They surface divergences from your actuarial model so a human can review faster; the rate filing still rests on traditional methodology. Make this explicit in the email footer. compliance positioning

Sample prompt

"Build today's prediction-market intel brief. Watch list is in .insightworker/playbooks/markets.md. Email it to underwriting-intel@acme.com at 7 AM."

Deliverables: markets_dashboard.xlsx · daily_brief.html · divergence_alerts.md · per-market history under .insightworker/markets-history/

Prefer the browser?

Run this in InsightStudio — no CLI install for the user.

Authors publish the app once with iw app publish; business users open it in the marketplace and click Run. Your worker box does the execution.

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Try this use case yourself

Free trial available — CLI, Desktop, VS Code, and the new --worker mode for InsightStudio. See download for details.

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